trigger a domino effect
Business News Agency May 16 haze disappeared electricity shortage, oil shortage is followed?
May 13, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Power Development and Reform Commission  No. 132," the text, explicitly strict control of the recent oil exports, in addition to Hong Kong and Macao, in principle, to suspend the export of diesel arrangements.
"As international oil prices plummeted, from May 6, the domestic stability of oil market supply and demand, a lot of experience in refining or thinly traded companies dilemma", an energy analyst Li Li Wang income that day, said: "Suddenly Development and Reform Commission issued the document, is likely to lead to oil shortage electricity shortage for prevention. "
It is understood that, in 2003, 2004 and 2005, the growth rate of China's power installed capacity can not meet the needs of society, Zhejiang has for several years at the height of summer a "power shortage." In order to ensure that the operating rate, many local small and medium enterprises have been limited to the rapid turn-owned electric diesel generator, giving rise to "oil shortage."
In fact, in early April, Zhejiang Province, which led to the government leaders of the NDRC, Sinopec, CNPC, CNOOC and the national grid companies, state departments to help coordinate the request to increase natural gas and fuel oil supply Zhejiang is the first outbreak this year, "power shortage" in the provinces.
"According to estimates, when the country more than two million tons of diesel for power generation, diesel supply and demand will be prominent," Zhong Jian, vice president of CBI said.
Under international oil prices plummeted, the National Development and Reform Commission Quedui oil products, particularly diesel supply anomalies attention, with the current situation of the domestic oil market supply and demand to form a clear contrast.
"International oil prices plummeted last week, so this week, trading was light domestic refined oil wholesale market, where the diesel market is only slightly higher Guiyang one place, other areas or maintain prices or a price drop last week," Treasure Island of the market monitoring bodies Master Zhao Xu said.
For the smooth delivery, refining enterprises of Shandong Province have loosened ex-factory price of diesel, the average price of 0 # diesel oil factory by May 4 of 8570 yuan / ton, fell to 12, 8480 yuan / ton, Shandong Lijin Petrochemical even ex-factory price of diesel has reached 8450 yuan / ton.
"Because of fuel surcharges, corporate profits in refining as not many, usually maintained at several hundred dollars / ton; week, however, the ex-factory price has fallen by 100 yuan / ton, we can see the eagerness of diesel fuel they sell," there is Shandong local people exclaimed.
But strangely, this time the NDRC has requested to suspend the export of diesel.
In this "on the protection of the current supply of oil market stability notification", "Power Development and Reform Commission  No. 132," the document, the NDRC addition to calling for moratorium on the export, but also called on all localities to regulate economic sector and the oil companies do well with the railway, transportation and other sectors of the transport link, to ensure the timely and transporting oil; requirements of the relevant enterprises to increase sales to production, protection of key need; requires local governments to strengthen management control and maintain market order, non-hoarding reluctant to sell, without price increases, price increases outside the such behavior.
"In addition, it asked CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC to continue to do supply to local refiners of crude oil and refined oil, the acquisition of work, effectively increase the supply of resources," Li Li said: "This should be a signal."
Information display from Hunan, the local electricity supply is very tight, and its limited range of electric power has reached one-third of the province, Changsha and residential electricity severely restricted.
Electricity shortage Domino
"According to the experience before 2005, must be after the oil shortage electricity shortage," a Sinopec official said.
According to him, in 2003, 2004 and 2005, the growth rate of China's power installed capacity can not meet the needs of society, Zhejiang has for several years at the height of summer a "power shortage."
"Many small businesses even in the face of Yiwu to open four stops three-week dilemma, in order to meet the delivery, bulk purchase of these enterprises will be diesel, and using its own power generators, Sinopec had forced the temporary from the north, even from the northeast transport oil to Zhejiang, "he recalls.
To diesel power generation, the cost per kilowatt at least 1.5 yuan more than the loss of these small enterprises are almost always produced, but in order to maintain market share, they are still crazy to purchase diesel fuel, the peak, the wholesale price of diesel higher than the maximum retail price of government actually higher than the 2,000 yuan / ton.
"Summer is the peak of the workers and peasants to start building and other industries when the oil is the traditional peak season in China, we own a large supply of pressure," the Sinopec official said: "If the electricity shortage caused by the additional demand for diesel, that would be greatly increased security for our existing diesel pressure, how do we do? "
The data from the Xinhua News Agency confirmed this view. 3 months of this year compared with petroleum diesel stock plunged 12% in Central, gasoline down 1.4%, while the end of February compared with the beginning of domestic oil stocks increased 3.94 million tons, increased 3.7 million tons of diesel.
In desperation, started to increase in the petrochemical diesel inventory, and provides its own sales companies purchase from Shandong to refining oil per ton will be rewarded 400 yuan / ton; the same time, to encourage the enthusiasm of its refinery production from the 4 January 1, refinery plans to produce ultra-refined oil, excess availability of 800 yuan / ton in subsidies.
"According to the NDRC's 'Power Development and Reform Commission  132,' the spirit of the text, we estimate that the main bodies in the petrochemical refining enterprises will further increase the gravitropic diesel procurement efforts, and even the latter does not rule out the use of the processing capacity to operation ", Li Li said.
Gasoline Shortages in 2007, in order to ensure domestic supply of refined oil, under the coordination of the NDRC, Sinopec, CNPC Zengyi to provide crude oil, refined oil acquisition mode entrusted to oil production and refining. Then this "generation processing" mode is used repeatedly in the oil shortage, but the oil shortage situation once the mitigation, and processing will come to a stop.
Rationalize the price mechanism
In fact, after 2006, regardless of oil shortage or electricity shortage, have their roots in irrational pricing mechanism, which has the consensus of the industry, but also by the National Development and Reform Commission and other central government departments approval.
"The electricity shortage causes, unlike the previous before 2005, Eleventh Five-Year period, China's power generating capacity has been greatly improved, but the current operating rate of thermal power units is not high," May 6 National Electric SFC Yu Yanshan, deputy director of the General Office admitted.
A SERC report, "during" my new installed capacity over 430 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity reached 9.6 million kilowatts, the second largest in the world; national 220 kV and above transmission lines to reach the total length of 430,000 km transforming capacity KVA 1.96 billion, respectively, the "fifth" at the end of 1.7 times and 2.4 times the grid size ranked first in the world.